| Author | Message | ||
     Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4380 Registered: 05-2005 |
Much as I'm enjoying the Santorum distraction, it's obviously going to be Romney for the Republicans. Obama's going to beat him, right? Or does Romney have a serious chance? | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2366 Registered: 10-2004 |
I really think Obama will win, but maybe by a hair. Polling in recent months has been all over the place. For a while, polls had been showing that Romney could actually pose a formidable challenge, while other, recent polls have shown Obama might nab it. The problem for Republicans is that people just aren't very enthusiastic about Romney. Moderates seem to dig him, but the far right - the religious right nut jobs and tea party wing nuts, aren't having it, hence the current fracturing and the Santorum distraction. However, that same contingent of rightwing craziness will likely vote for Romney as what they see as the lesser of two evils. While the Republicans seem divided now, they could rally together come election time. Right now, it's just too early to tell. At the moment, I'm more worried about what the Supreme Court is going to do to the already seriously watered down health care bill. If they strike the whole thing, or gut its major provisions, it's not going to look good for Obama going into this election cycle, not to mention, it'll set back what little progress was supposedly made with the bill in the first place. (The current conservative majority Supreme Court has shown an increasing lack of restraint and have blatantly pushed the conservative agenda. There's definitely reason for concern here). I'm also concerned about a possible Republican take-over in the Senate. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 2893 Registered: 03-2005 |
This is a huge subject and I have to go in to work early today. Obama is quite vulnerable, given the lethargic economy and his first couple years in office in which he was clearly learning the ropes and making a lot of highly visible mistakes. But the Republicans have become entirely delusional. Nixon's old "Southern Strategy" of picking up the Dixiecrats alienated by LBJ's Great Society and civil rights programs has slowly evolved into a hardened union of flat-earth anti-intellectual reactionaries and racial and religious bigots, centered far too much in the rural demographic--a perpetually declining one. The word "moderate" has been bandied about with the same disdain as "liberal". This party culture disables the Republicans from putting forward a national candidate palatable to a majority of the voting public. Hence the astonishing gymnastics attempted by Romney to get through the Republican primary minefield. Romney is obviously a moderate but must pretend otherwise. IMO, Romney has no significant disagreement with any of Obama's policies. No disagreement at all. But he must pretend to have disagreements or else why vote for him? And, worse yet, if he has no disagreement with Obama's policies how can he belong to this party? His laughably clumsy and inauthentic carps about Obama veer between silly (such as the Russians being our Number 1 geopolitical foe) to simply totally devoid of content. Romney will get the proportion of the American electorate who won't vote for a black (or, really, mixed) man for President and also the folks who will vote R no matter what. That's the same crowd who voted last time and Obama won. But: a certain small but crucial proportion of religious right wing types will simply decline to vote for president at all because Romney's Mormonism is as unacceptable to them as Obama's skin color. Finally, in the middle of the electorate there's a huge number of people with the basic instincts to pick up on the fact that one of the candidates will say ANYTHING and seems to have no philosophical or ethical core. They will pull the lever for Obama even though some of them would not have done so otherwise. I agree that the likely Supreme Court smackdown on the health care law will bloody Obama's nose. But nothing changes the Romney handicaps. I've never in my life called an election so early, but as of the beginning of this year I've been saying it: Obama wins re-election. Rob? | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4385 Registered: 05-2005 |
Thanks for your thoughtful, considered answers lads. Jeff, I hope you've registered with the US embassy so you can vote in November? | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4386 Registered: 05-2005 |
By the way, I was listening to a great piece on NPR (through ABC NewsRadio) last night on the Supreme Court's health care deliberations. Sounded to me like a majority decision - maybe even 6-3 - will go the way of the good guys. (Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part though). I just wish the death panel aspect of Obamacare had got through in the first place. That had real potential. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4400 Registered: 05-2005 |
Oh my God. Did Santorum call Obama the n word? http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/ cifamerica/2012/mar/30/rick-santorum-sli p-n-word | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2373 Registered: 10-2004 |
In a country where this sticker (http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/thesides how/bumpersticker.jpg) seems to be selling reasonably well in certain corners, anything is possible. | ||
| Mark Leydon Member Username: Mark_leydon Post Number: 334 Registered: 05-2005 |
Australian journo Mike Carlton's column about the Republican primaries from a few week's ago in the Sydney Morning Herald is certainly worth a read: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a -field-so-scary-that-you-cant-turn-away- 20120120-1qa31.html "A field so scary that you can't turn away: "One of my new year's resolutions was to ignore the Republican primaries in the United States, but I have broken it already. "They have a horrible, irresistible fascination, not unlike watching a funnel web spider crawling across your lounge-room carpet. All those spray-on tans, those spray-on first names - Mitt, Newt, Rick, Ron - and worse, those spray-on opinions confected out there on the lunar right. "These people have spun so far off any rational policy axis that they make George W. Bush look like a Roosevelt liberal. "Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is the most worrying, if only because he's likely to be the winner to go up against Barack Obama. He made his multimillions as a rip'n'gouge venture capitalist, or whatever the buzz phrase is these days, preying on the carcasses of struggling companies and turning fat profits by the traditional method of sacking half the workforce and flogging off the bare bones of what was left. "The American ABC television network and The Washington Post newspaper reported this week that Romney has an estimated $US33 million stashed in the notorious tax haven of the Cayman Islands. Pushed by his Republican rivals to reveal his financial dealings, he has admitted only to paying "close to 15 per cent" tax. All perfectly legal, of course, but morally bankrupt in a nation where the thieves of Wall Street have destroyed the savings of the middle class. "The rest of the field looks even nastier. Newt Gingrich, the ultimate Washington insider, postures as an advocate of small government and "family values", but is a thrice-married serial adulterer who, bizarrely, was forced to make a public pledge last month 'to uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse and respect for the marital bonds of others'. "Then you have Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania and religious hardliner who frets incessantly about Darwinian evolution, abortion, sexual morality and euthanasia. "Infamously, he once compared gay sex to 'man on child, man on dog'. Google his surname and you'll find the algorithm directs you, first up, to a hilariously sleazy neologism that has no place in a family newspaper. "But even Santorum pales against the maddest of the lot, the Texas congressman Ron Paul, who wants to chainsaw half the government in Washington and return the US dollar to the gold standard, and who believes the United Nations is a vast global conspiracy to deprive America of God and guns. "Commonly but inexplicably described as a 'libertarian', he is, in fact, another wacko moraliser infamous for pronouncing that 'homosexuals, not to speak of the rest of society, were far better off when social pressure forced them to hide their activities'. "On the economic troubles besetting the US, Paul thinks only that 'it's amazing that people don't understand that the more the market is involved and the smaller the government, the lower the price, the better the distribution, and the higher the quality.' Apparently he has never heard of Lehman Brothers. "Yes, it's true that Obama has been a disappointing President, but any one of this Republican lot in the White House would be a disaster." | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1646 Registered: 08-2006 |
I'll second what Randy said. Obama's not in the catbird seat by any stretch, but Romney's a zilch, probably the weakest Repub candidate I've ever seen. There's scarcely an issue he hasn't been on both sides of at some point in his career, and I expect the Obama team to eviscerate him for his flip flops. Things may change, but with the economy improving and Obama's skills on the campaign trail, I gotta think the good guys will win this one. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 2898 Registered: 03-2005 |
That SMH column is a great summary. Can I emigrate to Oz please?!? | ||
| andreas Member Username: Andreas Post Number: 951 Registered: 04-2006 |
because of the high hopes the people in the U.S. and in the rest of the world had, obama dissapointed a lot of people, but the idea that one of those republican canditates would lead the usa the next four years is scaring. in an article of a german mag they called rick santorum obama's best supporter. each day he fights against the ''etch a sketch''man, is a point for obama - and not only because romney looses a lot of money which he could need for the final spurt. | ||
| MaxVoltage Member Username: Maxvoltage Post Number: 8 Registered: 07-2009 |
If you think this field is scary, wait until 2016. Chris Christie and Palin , NOW THAT IS SCARY! | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2354 Registered: 01-2005 |
Marco Rubio from Florida will be running as well in 2016 for the GOP. Somehow I don't see Palin ever choosing to toss her moose hunting hat into the ring again. She makes too much money doing what she does now. She left office barely half way through her first term to make more money as well as expressing that she had grown tired of being Governor. I don't she can recover politcally from that. | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2379 Registered: 10-2004 |
Michael, good point about Palin. Plus, even if she did have presidential ambitions, she would create an even deeper fissure in the Republican party. A number of moderate conservatives and independents voted for Obama in '08 because Palin was McCain's running mate. If she was vying to be first on the ticket, she'd likely get smacked down in the primaries. The establishment just wouldn't have it. Randy makes a good point about how many of Obama's policies are virtually indistinguishable from Romney's. That's forced Romney to pretend to be more hardline, and I think you can see how awkward that is for him. Romney's really in the wrong place at the wrong time. He'd have been a hit in the 80s. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2357 Registered: 01-2005 |
Hard to believe that Romney would get mote votes than McCain did in 2008, especially with the GOP's war on women. That said, Obama probably won't get as much as votes as he racked up in 2008 either. It's great to see Obama front and center explaining to the public what a disaster the GOP Ryan Plan would be. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4410 Registered: 05-2005 |
Yes, good to see Obama on the front foot and giving up on the pretense that it will be anyone but Romney. Andreas, I don't think the money Romney is spending on the primaries will affect his kitty for the presidential race. He's a billionaire. A few extra millions on the primaries isn't going to bother him. Also, there are no doubt a lot of Republican donors holding back on donating to anyone until they know who their candidate will be. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 2907 Registered: 03-2005 |
One of the things I have to remind myself repeatedly when contemplating Obama's presidency is that politics is the art of the possible. In the United States, the range of what is possible has contracted in the decades that I have been of voting age. Mr. Obama's election--by itself--was an extraordinary definition of the outer limit of the possible in 2008. While I have a huge laundry list of things that I wanted Obama to do that he has not done it must be acknowledged that the very hostile legislative branch he has had to work with and the continued vituperative dishonesty of one of the news networks watched by a plurality of the populace (all you Aussies on here, I love you dearly but you owe it to the rest of the English-speaking world to drown Mr. Murdoch and all of his progeny in Sydney Harbour) he could hardly have managed much better. My sense (and hope) is that Obama is a great chess player with a long game. These bozos opposing him definitely are NOT playing a long game. I hope they all trip on their respective rake handles. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2358 Registered: 01-2005 |
Randy is correct regarding which side is playing the long game. The GOP holds little sway with the expanding Hispanic population, other minorites, recent college grads, etc. It's base is shrinking. Registered Dems have shrunk though as well, so Obama is focusing on the independents in the middle and the expanding minority population. I have no doubt that Obama can win the independents by showing that the GOP Ryan Plan lacks any sense of fair play with it's huge give away tax breaks to the rich. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4423 Registered: 05-2005 |
The third party candidate (for the underwhelming Americans Elect) party is not looking likely to siphon many votes from either Obama or Romney! http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar /26/americans-elect-two-party-system | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 2977 Registered: 03-2005 |
All I can say this morning is . . . yay! | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2450 Registered: 10-2004 |
I was not expecting that AT ALL. And with Roberts joining the majority opinion. Wow. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4666 Registered: 05-2005 |
Woo hoo! When do the death panels start? | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2383 Registered: 01-2005 |
After the Citizens United 5-4 ruling by this conservative and activist Supreme Court that could eventually turn the US into an Oligarchy, I was shocked that Chief Justice Roberts showed judicial restraint for once and voted as he should have as the CJ. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1663 Registered: 08-2006 |
Padraig: Awesome. Yep, this was a surprising and gratifying decision. Let them call it Obamacare. Someday, they'll all want their name on it. As someone who was self-employed for 17 years and has a pre-existing condition, this legislation is profound and important and regardless of whether his legal heart was in the right place, Roberts did something major yesterday. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4675 Registered: 05-2005 |
I always thought the Republicans made a huge mistake in labelling it "Obamacare". That's not scary; it's got the word care in it. The Republicans used to be good at this sort of spin. | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2451 Registered: 10-2004 |
Yes but to some Republicans, the name Obama is synonymous with Hitler or Satan. And the term "Obamacare" is synonymous with socialism, the erosion of democracy, and death panels! (Which of course is ironic given that "Obamacare" is actually "Romneycare"). Believe me, they've marketed their spin quite effectively, especially when you consider that recent polls show that less than half the population approves of ACA. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4677 Registered: 05-2005 |
When you put it like that I see what they intended. I bet the number who approve will rise dramatically now though. People like to back a winner, and Obamacare is a winner. | ||
| Jeff Whiteaker Member Username: Jeff_whiteaker Post Number: 2452 Registered: 10-2004 |
Also, it's too bad that the bulk of ACA doesn't kick in until 2014, because I suspect that some of the naysayers, once they find out for themselves some of the benefits, will begin to come around to the law. But this is Obama's golden opportunity to really sell the ACA to the American public, and I hope his administration seizes it. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2384 Registered: 01-2005 |
The whole argument against it is now teetering on a razor's edge with the CJ having ruled it legit. The GOP is looking like a pack of raging loons barking like mad dogs at all the dare disagree with them. Latest polls showing the ACA now even in the popularity polls, and certain aspects of it are running at 80% positive. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 2978 Registered: 03-2005 |
It's very important to remember that polls are totally dependent upon what questions are asked. All along, when people were asked about specific features of the program the responses were positive. I agree with Padraig, there's a definite cohort of people who like to back a winner, not least the media's pack of barking dogs. (Sorry Padraig, but sometimes to us reading and watching the media they really do seem to act that way.) I remain of the opinion that Romney's core lack of any sort of conviction--except probably his Mormonism which he won't talk about--is going to sink him. The ACA issue will demonstrate this defect of his like no other. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4682 Registered: 05-2005 |
It's gone from 43 to 48% already. Parity followed by majority will soon come. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul /01/support-obama-healthcare-supreme-cou rt?newsfeed=true Oh, no offence taken by the way Randy. The newspaper I work for is most definitely not of the barking dog variety. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4861 Registered: 05-2005 |
This thread has been abandoned for a while. So, Randy, Michael, Rob and anyone else with a dog in this race, how's it all going? | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3042 Registered: 03-2005 |
Padraig, when the attacks on the embassies (consulate, in the case of Libya) were first reported I stressed out--"oh no, here comes a replay of the Iranian embassy crisis . . . ." In fact, I immediately became downright paranoid about it. I was convinced that the infamous video--which I hadn't yet seen--was bankrolled by Sheldon Adelson and then pushed and promoted to middle eastern Islamic outlets so as to goad them. But it was pure paranoia on my part. I hadn't seen how absurd the video is; if you turn off the volume you'll swear its Monty Python and turning up the volume doesn't necessarily dispel that idea. I also underestimated Mr. Romney's talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It also helps that I just read Michael Lewis' lengthy article on Obama in Vanity Fair. You can read it here: http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/ 10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama Vanity Fair is notorious for slash pieces of major political figures. Just check out its past profiles of John McCain and George W. Bush. This thoughtful article can be considered to be a puff piece instead but I think it contains enough honest depiction of Obama's conscientiousness and integrity to highlight the contrast between Obama and Romney and--even worse--the current mainstream of the Republican Party as to foreign policy. So far, the new wave of unrest in the Middle East just underscores the importance of foreign policy gravitas. Romney is a comprehensive loser there. So I stand by the position I've taken since the start of the year. Obama wins. No, maybe it's not a landslide since there's maybe somewhere between 3% and 5% of the electorate who are still hard-wired as racists. But he wins. And the margin of that win just might be greater than I expect. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4868 Registered: 05-2005 |
Hopefully you are right Randy. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1671 Registered: 08-2006 |
My only concern is apathy. I don't see a ton of energy this year on either side and that's usually bad for Dems. I agree with Randy - the polls favor Obama - but it's gonna be a squeaker. Dammit. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2439 Registered: 01-2005 |
I can't see a path for Obama to lose. He's got California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, the NE states and Oregon and Washington locked in. If he continues to lead and wins Ohio and Florida, then he is in for 4 more years. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1674 Registered: 08-2006 |
So Romney goes and says what every liberal thinks every Republican says when they're behind closed doors. I'd like to amend my comment from yesterday. Dude's done. Print a t-shirt that says "I am the 47%" and give it to every veteran and college student you know. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3043 Registered: 03-2005 |
And nearly every retiree, Rob. Like my Romney-voting old mom. Somewhere I read something about O'Bama's luck of the Irish: his incredible record of opponents completely self-destructing. You'll know the history of that better than the rest of us. And then there was John McCain and his "suspension" of his campaign and choice of the Caribou Barbie for Veep. And now . . . . Actually I think this one will probably blow over. But I also expect Romney will make another bloomer before election day. | ||
| fsh Member Username: Fsh Post Number: 263 Registered: 05-2005 |
George Bush Jr was elected President twice ... once was unfortunate, twice was .... 'Luck o' the Irish ...' they must be the ones that emigrated 'cause no one's feeling too lucky around here these days ... | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4875 Registered: 05-2005 |
Stick a fork in his ass, turn him over, he's done. (With apologies to a Lou Reed lyric from 1989). That's a great insight, Rob, on it being what liberals have always thought Republicans say behind closed doors. Those t-shirts are in print, by the way. http://skreened.com/howpolitical/i-am-th e-47 Tammany Hall is surely putting in a bulk order. I don't think it will blow over any time soon Randy. As we've seen in the past few hours there is more to come from that tape. I'm impressed someone spent $50,000 to go to that fundraiser just so they could surreptitiously record it for nefarious purposes. Billionaires for Obama? What will be most fascinating is seeing if some of the red states (where the 47% actually goes far higher) now come into play for Obama? Probably not, but it will at least mean Romney has to campaign for them now, rather than assuming they were in the bag. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4876 Registered: 05-2005 |
PS: Good job internet. | ||
| David Gagen Member Username: David_g Post Number: 410 Registered: 02-2007 |
Worried about Israel attack on Iran as soon as/if Romney wins. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2440 Registered: 01-2005 |
A number of GOP office holders or those seaking office are already running away from Romney. Romeny's fund raiser speech might have also put the final nail into the coffin of the GOP's chance to take over the Senate. Romney is so out of touch with those 5-7 percent of middle class independents he mentioned in the speech. How many of those will now move towards Romeny now that he might have offended them or memebers of their families? As soon as the new poll numbers come out, which I assume will be devasting, Romney will have to start backing off campaigning in swing states such as Ohio and Viginia. He will also bring into play states that were marginally red states into states that Obama can now target. Mittens only remaining slim chance might be to run the table on the debates. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4883 Registered: 05-2005 |
Obama now has an eight point lead among likely voters - 51-43. So Obama is getting the 47% plus another 4. Nice work secret video guy! | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4884 Registered: 05-2005 |
Story here http://www.smh.com.au/world/poll-gives-o bama-historic-september-lead-20120920-26 991.html | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4889 Registered: 05-2005 |
Wow. I've just read the story properly, and that poll was taken before the damning 47% video emerged! I can't wait for the first post-video poll. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2443 Registered: 01-2005 |
Romney will now try to connect with the middle class he has been slamming or avoiding since January with his reduce the deficit bit, which he claims will spur job growth. The trouble with his message is that the middle class has seen through his ruse of no details about the cuts (which will include popular programs), while giving huge tax breaks to the rich. Hardly a way to cut deficits as The Big Dog (aka Bill Clinton) has clearly detailed. It would be sweet if the GOP lost control of the House, but I would settle for Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan and Michele Bachmann losing. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4893 Registered: 05-2005 |
Michael, does the fact that your name is uncomfortably close to Michele Bachmann give you nightmares? | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2444 Registered: 01-2005 |
Padraig, You bet it does! It's way too close for comfort. My politics though are 180 degrees of opposite from hers though. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2446 Registered: 01-2005 |
I have visions of the GOP imploding in less than 6 weeks, losing more than a half dozen Senate seats and control of the Congress as well! | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4908 Registered: 05-2005 |
I am Pádraig Collins, and I approve Michael's message. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4909 Registered: 05-2005 |
I also approve this Sarah Silverman, pro-Obama video. Because it's very funny. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5o6-qNk 6Q | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1679 Registered: 08-2006 |
This new Obama ad is exactly what I had in my head after I heard the Romney fundraising tape. Devastating. And entirely true. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9xCCaseo p4&feature=player_embedded | ||
| Andrew Kerr Member Username: Andrew_k Post Number: 761 Registered: 04-2005 |
The Sarah Silverman "Voter id" clip is great too ! http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/20 12/sep/28/sarah-silverman-voter-id-video | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4939 Registered: 05-2005 |
Blue Monday http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/jo hncassidy/2012/09/electoral-predictions- the-obama-romney-map-is-turning-blue.htm l | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4952 Registered: 05-2005 |
Thank God the unemployment figures have come down, because Obama's debate performance left a lot to be desired. The one high point though, was his taking ownership of the term "Obamacare". | ||
| Stuart Wilson Member Username: Stuart Post Number: 655 Registered: 10-2006 |
Thanks for that clip, Padraig. Maybe they could put Sarah up against Romney for the next debate instead? | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4958 Registered: 05-2005 |
That would perhaps yield a more favourable result Stuart. It will be intriguing though: Joe Biden, from Irish Catholic, working class background vs Paul Ryan, from Irish Catholic, not-so-working class background. I'm hoping Biden will surprise as much as Romney did the other night. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2453 Registered: 01-2005 |
Romney is using the exact tactic he used back in 2002, switching his postions to the middle with just weeks to go to appeal to independent and undecided voters. It's up to Obama to clearly explain that Romney cannot be trusted, that Romney has no core values and will switch his postions again to the right if elected. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4963 Registered: 05-2005 |
But this shouldn't have been a surprise to the Democrats Michael. That's what Republicans have done since at least the 80s - go right to fire up the base and win the nomination, then head for the centre to win the swing voters. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2454 Registered: 01-2005 |
Pádraig, true enough as you say. I would only add that the stakes are higher this year if Romney wins and the Republicans retain the House. They will try to undue virtually everything good that has past since 2009. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3050 Registered: 03-2005 |
I haven't had the heart to touch this thread. I feel I'm being punished by the universe for my hubris. I was absolutely devastated by Obama's poor showing last week. I literally lost sleep over it. I could not believe that he could do such an inept job. The Republicans' favorite meme already was that Obama is Jimmy Carter reincarnate and Obama finally gave them some real ammunition for that charge. I'm still hanging onto the fact that I have never heard of a man who does not inspire his own party--Romney--being elected President. But Obama did an inexcusably bad job. He may have thrown away his re-election. For many years I watched the News Hour on PBS with Jim Lehrer (and Robert McNeil until he retired). I stopped after the 2000 election because I was absolutely convinced that Lehrer pitched nothing but softballs to GWB while coming as close to grilling Gore as Lehrer ever comes to grilling anybody. I felt that he intentionally biased the proceedings in favor of Bush. I cannot make the same charge this time. He was simply gormless, with no control of the proceedings whatsoever. Obama earned ALL of the blame. He had opportunity after opportunity and never took any of them. He might as well have done Daddy Bush's number and looked at his watch. Yes, he can do a better job next time but usually fewer people watch the subsequent debates. Because they really are boring. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2455 Registered: 01-2005 |
Randy, Obama should be much better in the next debate, which is a town hall format. The 7.8 unempoyment number should bolster Obama's chances. Reagan was re-elected in Nov. 1984 when the jobless rate was 7.2 | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4967 Registered: 05-2005 |
Hubris for me too Randy. Big time. Are people - other than raving right wing loonies - believing the nonsense being spun by Fox News etc that the unemployment numbers have been faked in some massive conspiracy? | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2457 Registered: 01-2005 |
No on is believing it other than the loonies who weren't going to vote for Obama anyway. What are the going to say in 23 days when it shrinks down to 7.6? | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3051 Registered: 03-2005 |
I visited my family this past weekend. My oldest brother is quite the Republican. He sat there and told me how he was convinced that Obama would short-sell the country in international dealings and that he was a "redistributionist." I could kick myself for forgetting to point out that the Reagan-to-present Republicans were redistributionists who had directed a larger share of the country's wealth into the accounts of the super-rich over the past 30 years. But I'm not a litigator or debater. He acknowledged that the only tax cut he has personally felt was Obama's tax credit for the college tuition he pays for his two sons. He did not feel the Bush tax cuts. (I did; I felt I was being undertaxed.) I did jump on that one: "so the only guy whose tax policies have ever specifically benefitted you is the guy you are going to vote against?" There are a lot of people in this country with no critical thinking abilities at all, some of them with graduate degrees. Some of them don't want the black guy. Some of them don't want the "D" label. | ||
| David Gagen Member Username: David_g Post Number: 412 Registered: 02-2007 |
I repeat what I said earlier in this thread, if Romney wins, look out for Israel pre-emptive strike on Iran within 100 days of Republicans taking office. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2461 Registered: 01-2005 |
Romney will probably nominate John Bolton for some high spot in his cabinet, so you could be right David! | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4969 Registered: 05-2005 |
I didn't see the VP debate, but from the coverage it seems Biden did well. Did any of you see it? | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2462 Registered: 01-2005 |
Biden did do well on the medicare, middle class, and women's choice issues. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4996 Registered: 05-2005 |
Heartening to read that so many had voted before Obama's non-performance in the first debate. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/1 4/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8991FR2012 1014 | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4997 Registered: 05-2005 |
Also good to read that Bruce Springsteen is getting involved now too. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4998 Registered: 05-2005 |
... and the link for that story is ... http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/1 4/entertainment-us-usa-campaign-obama-sp ri-idUSBRE89C0IU20121014 | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 4999 Registered: 05-2005 |
And the Onion's take on Biden is hilarious. http://www.theonion.com/articles/eloquen t-biden-brings-entire-audience-to-tears- in,29887/ | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1684 Registered: 08-2006 |
Padraig (and the rest of the Australian contingent here), I'm curious to know your thoughts on on the widely disseminated video of Julia Gillard's takedown of Tony Abbott, which you can watch here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0LFKwfvv NY I dunno the backstory at all, but it's a lovely bit of political theater (well worth watching the whole 15 minutes) and it's been widely passed around on these shores as a model for the way Obama should confront Romney on his lies, reversals, evasions and oily opportunism. I'd be curious to know the context in which Gillard's speech happened and how it was received. From a strictly neutral perspective, it's a devastating, masterful take down. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5001 Registered: 05-2005 |
Hi Rob, the speech was in the context of a move by the opposition to have the Speaker of parliament removed for alleged sexist text messages he sent. (The vote was defeated, but the Speaker resigned anyway). The context will soon be forgotten about; the speech will not. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1686 Registered: 08-2006 |
Speaking of speeches, or the like, Chicago Obama finally showed up at the debate last night, thanks gods. Mitt didn't roll over, but Obama finally started calling him out for his serial mendacity. That's what he needs to do, again and again and again. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5009 Registered: 05-2005 |
I've got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about where this is going. Gallup's daily tracking poll of likely voters has Romney leading Obama 51 to 45. Is this to become the election where the guy threw it all away on a lousy debate? One we'll tell our grandkids about, right after we tell them about Florida 2000? I implore my blue state friends on this board to do everything you can to make it not so. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1689 Registered: 08-2006 |
I'm not as gloomy Padraig, although it's definitely too close for comfort. This might cheer you up a bit: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com /2012/10/19/oct-18-obama-gains-in-foreca st-on-resiliency-in-swing-state-polls/ I have hope for the third debate. And I'm heading out with a group today to knock on doors in Wisconsin, which I'm quite certain will turn the tide : ) | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5017 Registered: 05-2005 |
Thanks Rob. I hope it goes well in Wisconsin. But how will the cheeseheaders respond to all you FIBs? | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1690 Registered: 08-2006 |
Wow, you know the term FIB! I am duly impressed. Went pretty well yesterday behind the Cheddar Curtain. Had some interesting discussions with a few undecideds and a few folks who claimed they weren't going to vote. Dunno if I changed any minds - which was not really the point - but it felt good to do something. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5019 Registered: 05-2005 |
Good on you Rob. I've spent time in Wisconsin twice, 1994 and 1999, visiting a friend I knew from when we were both living in Boston. I stayed in Madison both times, but also visited Milwaukee the first time and Green Bay the second. I spent one night in Chicago also in 1994 and went to a show at Second City. I had planned to spend another night in Chicago in 1999, but had got my departure days mixed up and by the time I realised it it was a mad rush just to get to the airport from Madison. (I was very late, and had to take my luggage to the door of the plane. Post 9/11 I would never have been allowed to board). I saw a Babes In Toyland show in Madison 1999. They were supported by Motocaster, who were great, and an AmRep band (possibly Chokebore). Oh, to be young. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2463 Registered: 01-2005 |
1 week to go before the election. Romney got slammed for his lying televison ad stating that Chrysler was going to shut down the Toledo, Ohio Jeep plant and transfer all those jobs to China. This lying televsion ad will close out any chances that Ohio will go for Romney. Chrysler came back with a statement that Romney was totally wrong, if fact the Toledo assembly plant (aka TNAP for Toledo North Assembly Plant)was adding workers. Romney will say anything to get elected, but this one finally might have put the nail in the coffin to winning Ohio. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5042 Registered: 05-2005 |
Thanks for the update Michael. I had not heard of that situation. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2465 Registered: 01-2005 |
Romney doubled down today with a new television ad continuing the lie about the Toledo Jeep plant closing down, and then tripled down on it with a radio ad! The Chrysler/Fiat CEO issued a statement today that Romney statements were inaccurate, and that if fact TNAP was going to add jobs! So fuck you Romney! Romney and his campaign henchmen are the lowest form of pond scum dregs that I have ever seen. | ||
| Geoff Holmes Member Username: Geoff Post Number: 858 Registered: 05-2005 |
I take it you don't like Romney Michael? Did you see the photo where he had his kids and wife on stage with the letters to his name but in the wrong order - spelling MONEY! (you couldn't quite see the R). I hope Obama wins. He was handed the poison chalice with the economy so is it any surprise that an economy of your size in not quite out of the doldrums. To put in the same style of regime that gives greed the freedom to do what it wants with the 47% would be lunacy. I hope those who vote realise this for everyones sake. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2466 Registered: 01-2005 |
Exactly Geoff. Obama had no cooperation from Washington GOP in the House and Senate for reviving the economy except for an odd vote here and there from Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and maybe one or two others. Romney reminds me of Joe McCarthy flinging lies left and right. He looked like a total tool yesterday at this campaign rally that suddenly became a relief rally for Hurricane Sandy. The Red Cross needs money donations Mitttens, not cans of food during a crisis. This from a man who wants to privatize and defund FEMA. Where would New Jersey and New York be this week without FEMA? | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1692 Registered: 08-2006 |
If you didn't see it, here's one NY Times writer's take on Mittens' "food drive." Pretty devastating. Especially the end. http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 /10/30/soup-charity-and-the-american-way / | ||
| Allen Belz Member Username: Abpositive Post Number: 2250 Registered: 09-2006 |
"If I have to listen to one more gray-faced man with a two-dollar haircut explain to me what rape is, I'm gonna lose my mind." - Tina Fey | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5045 Registered: 05-2005 |
I had read that earlier on my phone Rob. It's powerful. The NYT editorial from the same day is also very good. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/opinio n/a-big-storm-requires-big-government.ht ml | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2467 Registered: 01-2005 |
171K jobs added last month. Mittens can say all he wants to about the economy being stagnant, however most sane folks know the truth is just the opposite. This week has been one of Obama's best weeks during this campaign. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1693 Registered: 08-2006 |
Loved that NY Times editorial, Padraig. And Allen, that Tina Fey snippet was awesome. And Michael, agreed. Good jobs report, Bloomberg endorsement, lots of Christie hugs. Great week. Does this guy need to turn water into wine to get reelected over the serial liar? | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3059 Registered: 03-2005 |
To answer your question Rob, yes he does. This election is giving me the shits. I deserve every bit of it though. I probably haven't shared any of this previously, but it will explain why--for me--this election is a battle of good versus evil on a personal mythological scale. When I was six or seven years of age my parents converted to Mormonism. They were active all the way through my school years until I escaped at age 18. The Mormons never had a prayer with me because music was already a deep bloodstream-level love even by the time I was seven years of age and the Mormons were very big on the culture war of the '60s. Rock music was unquestionably the sound of the devil as far as the Mormons were concerned. Plus I'm not very good at self-deception on the big things so I knew I was a homo by the time I was 12 or 13. I was the kid in my family who won the battle of the haircut with my father--all because I was the A student and, well, he'd better not look the gift horse in the mouth. It's silly today but in the 60's and early 70's hair length was a big deal symbolically, especially in conservative circles. My folks required me go to Mormon "seminary" which was a before-school religious class during the high school years. I had to get up an hour or so early Monday through Friday to go to this. You'll all remember how great it was to get up early in the morning in your teens. I'd literally smoke a joint on the drive there--I blew a stop sign once while fiddling with the roach--and I'd bring a book and sit there in front of the church instructor and read my book, ignoring the proceedings. Obviously they thought I was the spawn of Satan and they dared not challenge or disturb me because one useful thing I inherited from my father was a super MEAN looking face. I'm a total peacenik but I look like I'll kill you if you get on my wrong side. My parents finally gave up making me go to this when they learned that I was taking a book with me to read. When I was approaching my 18th birthday and I was summoned in by the local bishop (the local congregational leader) to talk to me about going on a mission--you know, that thing where you wear a suit and ride a bicycle and pester people at their homes to try to get them to convert to the Mormon church. I suppose they called me in because the procedures require it and not because they actually thought I was a prospect. My first truly adult act was to tell this guy that my parents and I had an agreement that once I hit my 18th birthday I would no longer be required to attend church and at that point they would not see me again. It was a real liberation to tell a grownup the brutal truth like that. As a gay man, from a relatively early point, I found that I greatly preferred dating black men. In the context of the U.S. I found them to be wonderfully devoid of the unexamined sense of entitlement that I seemed to always encounter with white gay men. I also always loved the cultural crossing that was involved because the U.S. is STILL de facto segregated, though it is improving ever so slowly. I found it liberating to turn my back on many of the cultural strictures of my demographic and immerse myself in someone else's. (Except the music; I could never and would never abandon the wonderful diversity of sounds created by people of European origin.) So Romney versus Obama is for me a battle between my tortured alienated childhood and my later self-discovery, between things that make me shudder and fill me with dread and things that make me smile and fill me with admiration. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3060 Registered: 03-2005 |
Oh, let me add one more little dimension to this. Until 1978, the official Mormon doctrine was that black people were the descendants of "fence-sitters" in the great war in Heaven between Jesus and Satan before the Earth was populated and because of that they could not attain the "priesthood" in the Mormon church. Priesthood in the Mormon church is not a rare honor--it goes to all males from age 16 (I think, the memories weaken). Even I was a priest. In other words, black people were born to some sort of original sin and officially could not be full participants in the Mormon church. Officially, not colloquially. I grew up in that environment. In 1978 God changed his mind. You know, like Mitt Romney does all the time. I had already left three or four years previous. People like Nate Silver are saying that the odds of Romney winning are quite low. Hopefully he is correct. His methodology and analysis is persuasive (but, after all, I want to be persuaded). Romney needs to lose for deep moral and ethical reasons. I could ruin this thread--if I haven't already--by going on and on into further dimensions. So I'll stop. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5053 Registered: 05-2005 |
Wow, I knew Mormonism had weird ideas about black people, but I didn't know quite how weird. The Guardian has a great article on how important this election is http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/ 2012/nov/02/us-election-whoever-wins-pro found-impact | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1694 Registered: 08-2006 |
Randy, you couldn't ruin this thread. What you wrote is one of the most moving things I've read herein ever. I'll vote for Obama for a lot of reasons. Now, one of them will be you. | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2468 Registered: 01-2005 |
Looking at Obama's 3 years 9 1/2 months in the White House in retrospect, I think he did about 85% of what I wanted. The affordable health care act could have been better, but perhaps he didn't have the votes to get the public option included. I really wanted a gradual phase in of Medicare for all, but Obama didn't even consider it. Obama certainaly didn't have a Tip O'Neil type from the other side of the isle to work with on Congress, and Mitch McConnell and his filabustering lunkheads would rather see the economy falter then work with the other side. It's no wonder that the GOP membership is shrinking year after year. | ||
| David Gagen Member Username: David_g Post Number: 414 Registered: 02-2007 |
Randy, thanks for sharing such a moving reflection. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3061 Registered: 03-2005 |
All I have to say right now is YAY!!!!!!!!!!!! | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5054 Registered: 05-2005 |
Me too. YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Also, a belated thank you Randy, for your story above). | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2472 Registered: 01-2005 |
Pretty impressive that only two states that he won in 2008 flipped back to the GOP, Indiana and North Carolina. A solid victory thay may be bolstered by the Dems picking up as much as 4 Senate seats! | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5057 Registered: 05-2005 |
In case you haven't seen it, this history of New York Times presidential endorsements is fascinating. The last time the NYT backed a Republican was Eisenhower in 1956. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/ 10/28/opinion/presidential-endorsement-t imeline.html | ||
| Geoff Holmes Member Username: Geoff Post Number: 861 Registered: 05-2005 |
Count me in on the Yay too! Sanity prevails. As an outsider, sometimes America doesn't appear all that sane sometimes! I heard some early analysis here that was interesting. Along the lines that the Republicans are facing a more left (read "Centre" everywhere else in the world) American populous and that perhaps they will need to (my words here) "ditch the luny tunes religious right" and become more moderate to represent the changing mindset of the American people. It's amazing how some politicians can effect long term mindsets sometimes. Here in Auz, John Howard did it the other way - persuaded the population that it was really 1950. We are still getting over hime despite booting him out in 2007. I hope Obamas legacy lasts longer. | ||
| Rob Brookman Member Username: Rob_b Post Number: 1695 Registered: 08-2006 |
Quite the night - and not just for Obama. Elizabeth Warren in Mass., Tim Kaine in VA, a few prominent tea partiers booted out of Congress. I'm elated. | ||
| cosmo vitelli Member Username: Cosmo Post Number: 601 Registered: 05-2005 |
and another Yay from me. I was up at 5.30am to catch the result and having watched the South Park mormons episode last night was very relieved that there is no Romney Presidency and that Obama will get a chance to do some second term good work | ||
| Michael Bachman Member Username: Michael_bachman Post Number: 2474 Registered: 01-2005 |
A dozen net gain in the House and up to 55 in the Senate. Obama will win the popular vote by more than 3 million once the Florida vote is finished being counted and 332 Electoral College votes to Mittens 206. Obama shouldn't move halfway to the center to get things done, but 1/4 to 1/3 would be fine. The GOP needs to make up the slack and concede more than half on any deals that are made. It's hard to quantify a percentage, but I hope you get my meaning. Mitch McConnell will still be the chinless minority roadblock that he has been the last four years, and there aren't anymore GOP moderates left in the Senate save Susan Collins from Mainewho will bolt from his dictatorial obstruction orders.It will be up the the people to put the heat on the GOP Senate if the fillabusters continue. | ||
| Pádraig Collins Member Username: Pádraig_collins Post Number: 5073 Registered: 05-2005 |
Romney telling it like it isn't, again. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_p olitics/frame_game/2012/11/romney_gifts_ and_the_47_percent_what_he_really_thinks _about_blacks_hispanics.html?wpisrc=news letter_jcr:content This year, at least, the Democrats were blessed with their opponents. | ||
| Randy Adams Member Username: Randy_adams Post Number: 3071 Registered: 03-2005 |
Padraig, that news story made the actual election outcome feel so orgasmically good! The depth of the man's plutocratic nature even exceeds the worst that I had imagined. |